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信号分解耦合深度学习的长期光伏功率预测

Long-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting via Signal Decomposition Coupled With Deep Learning

  • 摘要: 针对光伏出力受多气象因素耦合影响、功率序列非平稳性强导致长期预测精度不足的问题,提出一种信号分解耦合深度学习的长期光伏功率预测模型。首先,采用最大信息系数(maximal information coefficient,MIC)挖掘气象特征与光伏功率间的非线性关联;其次,利用完全集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)将功率序列自适应分解,并基于样本熵重构为高频波动分量与低频趋势分量;然后,以注意力双向长短期记忆网络(AttBiLSTM)建模高频分量、XGBoost逐时刻建模低频分量,叠加重构后经XGBoost残差修正输出预测结果。基于甘肃某光伏电站连续500d的15min级数据的实验表明:所提模型平均绝对误差为1.1496 kW,均方根误差为1.9192 kW,决定系数为0.9975,相比PCC-LSTM-XGBoost模型平均绝对误差降低31.7%,均方根误差降低43.7%,可为光伏电站长期发电计划制定与电网调度运行提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: A long-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting model coupling signal decomposition with deep learning is proposed to address the insufficient accuracy caused by multi-meteorological coupling and strong non-stationarity. First, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) is used to mine nonlinear associations between meteorological features and PV power. Second, the power series is adaptively decomposed by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), and the components are reconstructed into high- and low-frequency parts based on sample entropy. Then, an attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory network (AttBiLSTM) models the high-frequency component, while XGBoost models the low-frequency component point by point; the summed reconstruction is further refined by an XGBoost residual corrector. Experiments on 500 consecutive days of 15-minute data from a PV station in Gansu show that the proposed model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.149 6 kW, a root mean square error of 1.919 2 kW and a determination coefficient of 0.997 5, reducing the two errors by 31.7% and 43.7% compared with the PCC-LSTM-XGBoost model.

     

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