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数据驱动的风电功率曲线自适应偏差校正:LSTM-Self-Attention深度学习方法

Data-Driven Adaptive Bias Correction for Wind Power Curves: LSTM-Self-Attention Deep Learning Approach

  • 摘要: 风电机组实际功率曲线与理论功率曲线存在偏差,影响风电场运行效率和功率预测精度。现有偏差校正方法在处理多元微气候因素耦合影响和长距离时序依赖方面存在局限性。本文提出基于LSTM-Self-Attention融合的多变量时序建模方法,通过结合LSTM的时序建模能力与Self-Attention的全局依赖捕获能力,构建处理风速、风向、温度、天气和风级五元微气候变量的偏差校正模型。该方法采用级联式架构,首先利用LSTM网络提取时序特征,然后通过Self-Attention机制建模变量间长距离依赖关系,实现功率曲线的动态校正。基于酒泉瓜州风电场19704组运行数据的实验验证表明,相比LSTM基准模型,所提方法的MAE从0.7041降至0.6859,RMSE从0.9370降至0.9136,分别改善2.6%和2.5%。模型推理时间约45ms,满足实时应用需求。研究为风电功率曲线偏差校正提供了一种可行的技术方案。

     

    Abstract: Discrepancies between actual and theoretical power curves of wind turbines impact wind farm operational efficiency and power prediction accuracy. Current bias correction methods are limited in addressing the combined effects of multiple microclimate factors and long-term time series dependencies. This study introduces a novel approach utilizing a multivariate time series modeling technique that integrates LSTM and Self-Attention mechanisms. By leveraging LSTM"s time series modeling capabilities and Self-Attention"s capacity for capturing global dependencies, a bias correction model is developed to address five microclimate variables: wind speed, wind direction, temperature, weather, and wind level. The proposed cascade architecture first employs an LSTM network to extract time series features, followed by the modeling of long-range dependencies between variables using Self-Attention to dynamically correct the power curve. Experimental validation using 19704 sets of operational data from the Jiuquan Guazhou wind farm demonstrates that the proposed method reduces MAE from 0.7041 to 0.6859 and RMSE from 0.937 to 0.9136, representing improvements of 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, compared to the LSTM benchmark model. The model"s inference time is approximately 45ms, meeting real-time application requirements. This research presents a viable technical solution for rectifying wind power curve deviations.

     

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