面向多元扰动的短期负荷精细化预测模型研究
Research on a Refined Short-Term Load Forecasting Model for Multiple Perturbations
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摘要: 短期电力负荷预测是支撑电网安全与经济运行的关键技术,针对实际负荷数据易受气象、日类型及新能源出力等多源扰动影响而呈现强不确定性的问题,本文提出一种面向多元扰动的精细化短期负荷预测模型。该模型以LightGBM为框架,通过特征工程辨识多因素耦合作用机制,采用时序感知的超参数优化技术提升模型泛化能力。基于地区电网实际负荷数据进行实验,所提模型较ARIMA、线性回归等基准模型预测精度提升5%以上,具有更高的准确性与稳定性。Abstract: Short-term load forecasting is a key technology for ensuring the safety and economic operation of power grids. Addressing the issue that actual load data is prone to strong uncertainties due to multi-source disturbances such as meteorological conditions, day types, and renewable energy output. This paper proposes a refined short-term load forecasting model designed to handle multiple types of disturbances. Built upon the LightGBM framework, the model employs feature engineering to identify the coupling effects of various influencing factors and utilizes a time-series-aware hyperparameter optimization technique to enhance generalization performance. Experiments conducted on actual load data from a regional power grid demonstrate that the proposed model improves forecasting accuracy by over 5% compared to baseline models such as ARIMA and linear regression, offering higher accuracy and stability.
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