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基于CEEMDAN与CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的空调负荷预测

Air Conditioning Load Forecasting Based on CEEMDAN and CNN-BiLSTM-Attention

  • 摘要: 针对商业综合体空调系统电负荷序列非平稳性强、传统模型预测精度不足的问题,提出一种基于CEEMDAN与CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的多源时空负荷预测方法。通过融合客流、温湿度、CO2浓度及时间特征构建能耗特征集,利用CEEMDAN分解降低序列复杂性,并结合CNN、BiLSTM与Attention实现空调负荷预测。实验结果表明,该模型在MAPE、RMSE、MAE及R2等指标上均优于对比模型,对复杂环境下的商业建筑空调能耗变化具有较高预测精度与稳定性。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of strong non-stationarity in the electrical load time series of commercial complex air conditioning systems and the insufficient prediction accuracy of traditional models, this study proposes a multi-source spatiotemporal load forecasting method based on CEEMDAN and CNN-BiLSTM-Attention. By integrating passenger flow, temperature, humidity, CO2 concentration, and temporal features to construct an energy consumption feature set, the method utilizes CEEMDAN decomposition to reduce the complexity of the time series and combines CNN, BiLSTM, and Attention mechanisms to achieve air conditioning load forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate that this model outperforms comparison models in metrics such as MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R2, exhibiting high prediction accuracy and stability for air conditioning energy consumption fluctuations in commercial buildings under complex environmental conditions.

     

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