基于相似日聚类与Transformer-BiLSTM的光伏功率预测
Photovoltaic power prediction based on similar day clustering and Transformer-BiLSTM
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摘要: 光伏功率的准确预测已成为电力系统领域的核心研究课题。为提高光伏发电功率预测精度,本文提出了基于相似日聚类与Transformer-BiLSTM的光伏功率预测方法。本论文首先对数据进行归一化处理,通过Spearman相关系数选出强相关的气象参数特征作为模型的输入,依据BIC准则选取最佳聚类数并通过K-means选取相似日,并将数据输入到Transformer-BiLSTM预测模型中。最后,以某光伏发电场实测数据进行研究,并与单一预测模型相对比,结果表明,所提模型具有较高的预测精度。Abstract: Accurate prediction of photovoltaic power has become a core research topic in the field of power systems. To improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation, this paper proposes a photovoltaic power prediction method based on similar day clustering and Transformer-BiLSTM. Firstly, this paper normalizes the data, selects strongly correlated meteorological parameter features as the model input through the Spearman correlation coefficient, selects the optimal number of clusters based on the BIC criterion and selects similar days through K-means, and then inputs the data into the Transformer-BiLSTM prediction model. Finally, the measured data of a certain photovoltaic power plant is studied and compared with a single prediction model. The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy.
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