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基于K-means聚类、节假日特征与LSTM的游乐园短期负荷预测方法

A Short-term Load Forecasting Method for Amusement Parks Based on K-means Clustering, Holiday Features and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

  • 摘要: 游乐园用电构成复杂、客流受天气与节假日扰动显著,电力负荷具有强随机性、日内周期性突出、尖峰突变明显、负荷模式混杂等特征,传统单一预测模型难以精准刻画其波动规律。为提升游乐园短期电力负荷预测精度,本文提出一种融合K-means聚类与多特征LSTM的负荷预测方法。本文首先剖析游乐园负荷时序特性与预测难点,构建包含时间、气象、节假日分级的多维特征体系;采用四级划分规则完成节假日精细分级,弥补传统二值分类粒度不足问题;引入K-means无监督聚类结合轮廓系数优选最佳聚类数,实现日负荷用电模式自动划分;基于24步长滑动窗口构建LSTM时序预测模型,实现小时级动态时序推演。实例结果表明:优化模型的对称平均绝对百分比误差为8.06%;相较于单一LSTM模型,有效缓解负荷模式混杂、尖峰负荷低估、预测曲线过度平滑等问题,具备更优的拟合精度与泛化能力。

     

    Abstract: Amusement parks feature complex power consumption structures, and their passenger flow is highly susceptible to disturbances from weather and holidays. Consequently, their power load exhibits characteristics including strong randomness, prominent intraday periodicity, distinct spike mutations, and mixed load patterns, which makes it difficult for traditional single prediction models to accurately capture its fluctuation patterns. To improve the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting for amusement parks, this paper proposes a load forecasting method that integrates K-means clustering and multi-feature Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). First, this paper analyzes the temporal characteristics and forecasting difficulties of amusement park load, and constructs a multi-dimensional feature system covering time, meteorological, and holiday classification features. A four-level classification rule is adopted to realize fine-grained holiday grading, which addresses the problem of insufficient granularity of the traditional binary classification. Then, the unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm is introduced, combined with the silhouette coefficient to select the optimal number of clusters, enabling the automatic partitioning of daily power consumption patterns. Finally, an LSTM temporal forecasting model is constructed based on a sliding window with a window size of 24, to achieve hour-level dynamic temporal inference. Case study results show that the proposed optimized model yields a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) of 8.06%. Compared with the standard single LSTM model, this method effectively mitigates issues including mixed load patterns, peak load underestimation, and over-smoothing of forecasting curves, with significantly improved fitting accuracy and generalization capability.

     

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