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基于时空状态表征与双路径偏差校正的区域光伏出力预测方法研究

Research on Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method Based on Spatio-Temporal State Representation and Dual-Path Deviation Correction

  • 摘要: 高比例新能源并网下,光伏出力预测准确性影响电网调度安全。针对NWP与电站微气象空间失配及传统方法刻画天气连续变化不足,提出基于时空状态表征(Spatio-Temporal State Representation)与双路径偏差校正的区域光伏出力预测方法。该方法通过引入滞后反馈、滑动窗口统计及辐照波动,增强气象动态描述;结合物理约束与数据驱动双路径偏差校正,自适应融合提升复杂天气预测稳定性。实验表明,所提方法在晴、阴、多云场景下均优于对比模型,均方根误差由468.0117降至212.6154,精度与鲁棒性较好。

     

    Abstract: SWith high-penetration renewable energy integration, the accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting affects grid dispatch security. To address the spatial mismatch between NWP and plant micro-meteorology, and the inadequacy of traditional methods in characterizing continuous weather variations, a regional PV power forecasting method based on Spatio-Temporal State Representation and dual-path deviation correction is proposed. Lagged feedback, sliding-window statistics, and irradiance fluctuation features are introduced to enhance the description of meteorological dynamics. Combining physically constrained and data-driven dual-path deviation correction, an adaptive fusion mechanism improves forecast stability under complex weather. Experiments show that the proposed method outperforms comparison models under sunny, overcast, and cloudy conditions, with the root mean square error reduced from 468.0117 to 212.6154, demonstrating favorable accuracy and robustness.

     

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