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融合时空图卷积与迁移学习的区域光伏群冷启动功率预测

Cold-start Power Prediction of Regional Photovoltaic Clusters Integrating Spatiotemporal Graph Convolution and Transfer Learning

  • 摘要: 针对新建光伏电站缺乏历史数据、难以精准预测功率的“冷启动”难题,提出一种融合时空图卷积网络与迁移学习的区域光伏群功率预测方法。以区域内电站为节点,基于地理距离与气象相似度构建加权邻接矩阵,建立时空图结构;搭建融合空间图卷积、时间卷积与注意力机制的时空图卷积网络(ST-GCN),提取气象-功率耦合的时空特征;并通过参数共享与最大均值差异(MMD)领域自适应的迁移策略,将源域知识迁移至新建电站。某省级区域16座光伏电站的算例表明,所提方法在冷启动下的均方根误差较LSTM和GCN分别降低52.5%和39.8%。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the cold-start problem that newly-built photovoltaic (PV) stations lack historical data and can hardly achieve accurate power prediction, a regional PV cluster power prediction method combining spatiotemporal graph convolutional network and transfer learning is proposed. Taking PV stations in the region as nodes, a weighted adjacency matrix is built based on geographical distance and meteorological similarity to establish a spatiotemporal graph structure. A spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) integrating spatial graph convolution, temporal convolution and attention mechanism is then constructed to extract the spatiotemporal features of meteorology-power coupling. A transfer strategy based on parameter sharing and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) domain adaptation is further adopted to transfer knowledge from source-domain stations to newly-built stations. A case study on 16 PV stations in a provincial region shows that the root mean square error of the proposed method in cold-start scenarios is reduced by 52.5% and 39.8% compared with LSTM and GCN, respectively.

     

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