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基于ICEEMDAN-DTCN-Informer-MHCA模型的多变量短期风速预测

Multivariate Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on the ICEEMDAN-DTCN-Informer-MHCA Model

  • 摘要: 针对风速非线性、非平稳性及多源气象耦合导致的预测精度不足问题,本文提出一种基于滑动窗口ICEEMDAN分解与多头交叉注意力(MHCA)融合的双分支DTCN-Informer模型。该模型首先采用Lasso方法筛选关键气象变量,然后利用滑动窗口ICEEMDAN对风速序列进行动态分解以降低非平稳性。随后构建双分支并行架构:DTCN分支通过双膨胀卷积提取短期高频特征,Informer分支基于ProbSparse注意力捕捉长期趋势。最后通过多头交叉注意力机制自适应融合局部细节与全局模式,增强模型泛化能力。实验结果表明,所提模型相比Informer的MAE、MSE、RMSE和MAPE分别提升62.3%、89.7%、67.9%和42.6%。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the insufficient prediction accuracy caused by wind speed's nonlinearity, non-stationarity, and multi-source meteorological coupling, this paper proposes a dual-branch DTCN-Informer model based on sliding-window ICEEMDAN decomposition and multi-head cross-attention (MHCA) fusion. The model first uses Lasso to select key meteorological variables, then employs sliding-window ICEEMDAN to dynamically decompose the wind speed series to reduce non-stationarity. Subsequently, a dual-branch parallel architecture is constructed: the DTCN branch extracts short-term high-frequency features through dual-dilated convolution, while the Informer branch captures long-term trends based on ProbSparse attention. Finally, a multi-head cross-attention mechanism is applied to adaptively fuse local details with global patterns, enhancing the model's generalization ability. Experimental results show that compared to the baseline Informer model, the proposed model improves MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE by 62.3%, 89.7%, 67.9%, and 42.6%, respectively.

     

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