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基于BP神经网络的燃煤热电厂锅炉CO₂排放预测研究

Research on Predicting CO₂ Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plant Boilers Based on BP Neural Networks

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标背景下,精准核算燃煤电厂各锅炉机组的碳排放强度是实施碳配额分配与低碳运行优化的基础前提。本文以某热电厂动力站6台燃煤锅炉为研究对象,基于SIS系统采集的锅炉负荷、主蒸汽温度/压力、给水温度/压力等9项运行参数,构建BP神经网络单机组CO?排放预测模型。模型采用三层前馈网络结构,以各锅炉运行参数为输入,单位时间CO?排放量为输出。实验结果表明,模型预测CO?排放量的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.018,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.82,决定系数(R2)为0.903。本研究为热电厂在多锅炉并行运行场景下快速、低成本获取各机组实时碳排放数据提供了有效的计算工具。

     

    Abstract: Under the "Dual Carbon" target, accurate accounting of carbon emission intensity for each boiler unit in coal-fired power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for implementing carbon quota allocation and low-carbon operation optimization. This study takes six coal-fired boilers in the power station of a thermal power plant as the research object. Based on nine operational parameters collected from the SIS (Supervisory Information System), including boiler load, main steam temperature/pressure, feed water temperature/pressure, etc., a BP (Back-Propagation) neural network-based CO? emission prediction model for a single unit is constructed. The model adopts a three-layer feed forward network architecture, with operational parameters of each boiler as inputs and CO? emission per unit time as the output. Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.018, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.82, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.903. This research provides an effective computational tool for thermal power plants to rapidly and cost-effectively obtain real-time carbon emission data for each unit under multi-boiler parallel operation scenarios.

     

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