基于分时域独立LightGBM的电力日前电价预测研究
Day‑Ahead Power Price Prediction Using Separate LightGBM Models for Peak and Valley Periods
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摘要: 随着我国电力现货市场常态化运营,日前电价作为市场出清核心变量,其精准预测对市场主体收益管控、电网日前供需平衡调控具备关键支撑作用。日前电价受日内负荷时序波动、风光新能源随机出力、分时供需格局差异化等多源非线性因素耦合驱动,低谷、高峰时段电价数据分布存在显著异质性:低谷区间电力供给冗余,电价波动平缓、数值收敛;高峰区间负荷激增、调峰资源稀缺,易产生极端尖峰电价,全局统一机器学习模型难以同时适配两类差异化数据分布,导致高峰时段预测相对误差居高不下。Abstract: With the normalized operation of China’s electric?power spot market, day?ahead electricity price acts as the core variable of market clearing. Its accurate prediction provides crucial support for revenue management of market participants and day?ahead supply?demand regulation of power grids. Day?ahead electricity price is affected by coupled nonlinear factors including intra?day load fluctuation, stochastic wind?solar power output and time?varying supply?demand patterns. Obvious distribution heterogeneity exists between valley?period and peak?period electricity prices. In valley periods, sufficient power supply results in stable and convergent electricity?price values. By contrast, surging load and scarce peak?shaving resources in peak periods easily trigger extreme price spikes. Global machine?learning models with unified parameters fail to adapt to such differentiated data distributions, which leads to excessive prediction errors during peak hours.
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