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基于TimesFM协变量融合的短期日负荷预测方法

A Short-term Daily Load Forecasting Method Based on TimesFM with Covariate Fusion

  • 摘要: 短期日负荷预测是电力系统发电调度和运行控制的重要基础。针对传统预测方法在处理复杂非线性负荷规律时精度不足的问题,本文提出一种基于TimesFM时间序列基础模型并融合温度与节假日协变量的短期日负荷预测方法。该方法首先利用TimesFM预训练模型学习负荷序列的时序特征,然后通过批量上下文外生回归(XReg)机制将温度数据作为动态数值协变量、节假日类型作为动态分类协变量融入预测过程。以某地区2022年1月至2026年6月的历史模拟负荷和气象数据进行实验验证,结果表明:基础TimesFM模型的MAPE为27.14%,加入温度协变量后MAPE降至6.59%,MAE相对改善77.2%;进一步加入节假日协变量后MAPE降至6.57%。温度协变量是提升预测精度的关键因素,验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Short-term daily load forecasting is an important foundation for power system generation scheduling and operation control. To address the problem of insufficient accuracy of traditional forecasting methods in handling complex nonlinear load patterns, this paper proposes a short-term daily load forecasting method based on the TimesFM foundation model for time series, which integrates temperature and holiday covariates. The method first utilizes the pre-trained TimesFM model to learn the temporal features of the load series, and then incorporates temperature data as dynamic numerical covariates and holiday types as dynamic categorical covariates into the forecasting process via the batch contextual exogenous regression (XReg) mechanism. Experimental validation is conducted using historical simulated load and meteorological data from a certain region from January 2022 to June 2026. The results show that the MAPE of the base TimesFM model is 27.14%; after adding temperature covariates, the MAPE decreases to 6.59% with a relative improvement of 77.2% in MAE; after further adding holiday covariates, the MAPE drops to 6.57%. Temperature covariates are a key factor in improving forecasting accuracy, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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