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基于线损建模与参数迁移的分布式光伏功率预测方法

Distributed Photovoltaic Power Prediction Method Based on Line Loss Modeling and Parameter Migration

  • 摘要: 针对分布式光伏功率预测训练数据受动态线损噪声污染、高精度预测模型难以规模化推广的问题,提出一种基于动态线损建模与跨区域参数迁移的光伏功率预测方法。在具备逆变器与并网点双量测的源域示范区构建动态线损模型,提取可迁移线损特征参数;将参数迁移至仅配置并网点计量设备的目标站点,通过实测净功率与估算线损反向重构纯净毛功率序列,消除线损非线性干扰。采用毛功率预测与线损估算双路解耦架构,分别学习发电与损耗规律,合成得到并网点功率预测结果。实验表明,所提方法可有效剔除线损噪声干扰,较传统方法预测精度显著提升,适用于海量分布式光伏站点的低成本、规模化功率预测。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problems that the training data of distributed photovoltaic power prediction is polluted by dynamic line loss noise, the model accuracy is insufficient and it is difficult to promote on a large scale, a photovoltaic power prediction method based on dynamic line loss modeling and cross-region parameter migration is proposed. A dynamic line loss model is constructed in the source-domain demonstration station with dual monitoring of inverters and point of common coupling (PCC), and the migratable line loss characteristic parameters are extracted. The parameters are migrated to the target stations only equipped with PCC metering equipment, and the pure theoretical gross power sequence is reconstructed inversely through the measured net power and estimated line loss to eliminate the nonlinear interference of line loss. A dual-path decoupled architecture of gross power prediction and line loss estimation is adopted to learn the power generation law and loss law respectively, and the PCC power prediction results are synthesized. Experiments show that the proposed method can effectively eliminate the interference of line loss noise, improve the training quality and generalization ability of the prediction model, and significantly improve the prediction accuracy compared with the traditional fixed line loss method. It is suitable for low-cost and large-scale power prediction of massive distributed photovoltaic stations。

     

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