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适应典型场景的低压配电网负荷特性分析及预测方法研究

Research on Load Characteristic Analysis and Prediction Methods for Low-Voltage Distribution Networks Adapting to Typical Scenarios

  • 摘要: 在新型配电系统建设背景下,低压配电网作为分布式新能源、电动汽车充电设施接入电力系统的重要接口愈发关键,常规负荷预测方法不适用于低压配电网,造成难以应对新能源接入与突增负荷的需求,台区阶段性重过载问题时有发生。本文通过将低压配电网负荷预测场景划分为常规供电场景和各类特殊供电典型场景,分析低压配电网负荷特性,考虑分布式光伏、充电设施等新型源荷影响,提出饱和、近中期负荷预测方法,并给出负荷预测典型案例,对指导低压配电网的规划建设具有重要的现实意义。

     

    Abstract: In the context of new distribution system construction, the low-voltage distribution network, as a crucial interface for integrating distributed renewable energy and electric vehicle charging facilities into the power system, has become increasingly vital. Conventional load forecasting methods are not suitable for low-voltage distribution networks, making it difficult to address the demands of renewable energy integration and sudden load surges, leading to periodic overloading issues in transformer districts. This paper divides the load forecasting scenarios of low-voltage distribution networks into conventional power supply scenarios and various typical special power supply scenarios, analyzes the load characteristics of low-voltage distribution networks, considers the impact of new distributed sources and loads such as photovoltaic systems and charging facilities, proposes saturation and medium-to-short-term load forecasting methods, and provides typical load forecasting cases. These findings hold significant practical importance for guiding the planning and construction of low-voltage distribution networks.

     

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