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电铁外部供电工程全寿命周期风险多维评估及应对策略研究

Research on Multi-Dimensional Risk Assessment and Response Strategies for the Full Life Cycle of External Power Supply Projects for Electric Railways

  • 摘要: 电铁外部供电工程作为高速铁路的动力保障,兼具电网项目共性特征与牵引供电的独特属性,在投资决策、建设实施和投产运营各阶段面临复杂风险。本文在分析电铁外部供电工程特点的基础上,系统识别全寿命周期风险因素,构建涵盖安全、成本、收入、功效四维度的风险评估指标体系,提出区分度最大化组合赋权法与风险系数评估模型。针对投资决策、建设实施、投产运营三阶段分别制定应对策略,研究成果可为电铁外部供电工程的风险管控提供系统化的理论框架与实践指引。

     

    Abstract: As the power assurance for high-speed railways, external power supply projects for electric railways possess both the common characteristics of power grid projects and the unique attributes of traction power supply, facing complex risks in the stages of investment decision-making, construction implementation, and commissioning operation. Based on analyzing the characteristics of external power supply projects for electric railways, this paper systematically identifies risk factors across the entire life cycle, constructs a risk assessment indicator system encompassing four dimensions: safety, cost, revenue, and effectiveness, and proposes a maximized differentiation combination weighting method and a risk coefficient evaluation model. Response strategies are formulated respectively for the three stages of investment decision-making, construction implementation, and commissioning operation. The research results can provide a systematic theoretical framework and practical guidance for risk management of external power supply projects for electric railways.

     

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