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考虑温湿累积效应与时序 KAN 网络的负荷预测研究

Research on Load Forecasting Considering Temperature and Humidity Cumulative Effects and Temporal KAN Network

  • 摘要: 针对复杂气象条件下短期负荷预测中温湿耦合关系刻画不足、高温滞后累积效应考虑不充分以及模型可解释性较弱等问题,本文提出一种考虑温湿累积效应与时序柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(Temporal KAN)的短期负荷预测模型。首先,引入温湿指数(THI)并构建热累积特征,形成多元动态气象特征矩阵,以刻画温湿协同及连续高温对负荷的非线性影响;其次,利用KAN边上可学习的B样条函数替代传统神经网络激活机制,构建Temporal KAN预测框架,实现负荷时序特征与气象驱动因素的深度融合。研究为复杂气象场景下电网负荷精准预测与优化调度提供方法支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the insufficient characterization of temperature-humidity coupling effects, the neglect of high-temperature lag accumulation, and the poor interpretability of traditional deep learning models in short-term load forecasting under complex meteorological conditions, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model based on temperature-humidity cumulative effects and the Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (Temporal KAN). First, the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and heat accumulation features are introduced to construct a multivariate dynamic meteorological feature matrix, which captures the nonlinear impacts of temperature-humidity interactions and continuous high-temperature events on load variations. Furthermore, a Temporal KAN framework is developed by employing learnable B-spline functions on network edges instead of fixed node activation functions in conventional neural networks, enabling effective integration of temporal load patterns and meteorological driving factors. The proposed method provides an effective approach for accurate load forecasting and refined power system dispatch under complex weather conditions.

     

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