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融合机理驱动数据增强与时空深度交互的微电网负荷态势感知

Title: Microgrid Load Situational Awareness via Mechanism-Driven Data Augmentation and Deep Spatiotemporal Interaction

  • 摘要: 鉴于多源异构数据之间存在着不易处理的深层非线性耦合,而源荷两端又存在近乎无序的随机波动,因此传统数据驱动模型在“冷启动”或样本断供的情况下极易陷入预测“失速”的困境。为解决此问题,本研究提出一种融合机理增强型机理数据生成与时空深度交互的微电网负荷态势感知新范式:设计一个多维映射关系的机理仿真模型,用其反演生成高保真物理场景以实现数据增强,继而又引入自适应Hampel滤波作为“净化器”。在此数据基础之上,针对性选择了适配物理耦合特征的CNN-BiLSTM级联架构,利用经过参数定制化的1D-CNN用以捕捉多变量间的局部短时突变,并协同BiLSTM深度挖掘时间序列的双向长程依赖。实验结果表明,所提方法在测试集上的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)低至4.90%,决定系数(R2)达0.9102,较传统LSTM模型预测误差降低20%,有效解决了传统模型小样本适应性差、预测失速的核心痛点,可为微电网的优化调度与安全稳定运行提供可靠的技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Given the deep and intractable nonlinear coupling among multi-source heterogeneous data, coupled with the nearly chaotic random fluctuations at both the source and load ends, traditional data-driven models are highly susceptible to the dilemma of prediction "stalling" during "cold starts" or data interruption scenarios. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel paradigm for microgrid load situational awareness that integrates mechanism-augmented data generation with deep spatiotemporal interaction. Specifically, a mechanism simulation model with multi-dimensional mapping relationships is designed to inversely generate high-fidelity physical scenarios for data augmentation, followed by the introduction of an adaptive Hampel filter as a data "purifier". Building upon this data foundation, a targeted CNN-BiLSTM cascaded architecture tailored to physical coupling characteristics is employed. A parameter-customized 1D-CNN is utilized to keenly capture local short-term sudden changes among multiple variables, working in synergy with a BiLSTM to deeply mine the bidirectional long-range dependencies within the time series. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as low as 4.90% and a coefficient of determination (R2) up to 0.9102 on the test set, reducing the prediction error by 20% compared to the traditional LSTM model. This effectively resolves the core pain points of traditional models, such as poor adaptability to small samples and prediction stalling, thereby providing reliable technical support for the optimal scheduling and safe, stable operation of microgrids.

     

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