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基于自适应滤波与注意力机制的功率预测方法研究

Research on Power Prediction Method Based on Adaptive Filtering and Attention Mechanism

  • 摘要: 随着可再生能源的高比例接入与电力市场化改革的深入推进,对短期功率预测的精度与稳定性提出了更高要求。传统时间序列预测模型在处理功率序列数据的非线性、非平稳性以及复杂时序依赖性方面存在一定局限。为此,本研究提出一种融合自适应滤波与注意力机制的深度学习预测模型。该方法首先采用自适应滤波算法(如LMS或RLS)对原始功率序列进行预处理,以抑制噪声干扰并提取潜在趋势特征;随后构建以长短期记忆网络(LSTM)为编码器-解码器框架,并嵌入注意力机制的核心预测模型,使其能够动态聚焦于关键历史时间步的信息。实验结果表明,所提方法在预测精度与鲁棒性上均取得了较好的效果,为短期功率预测提供了一种有效的解决方案。

     

    Abstract: With the high proportion of renewable energy integration and the deepening of electricity marketization, higher requirements have been placed on the accuracy and stability of short-term power prediction. Traditional time series prediction models have limitations in handling the nonlinear, non-stationary, and complex temporal dependencies of power data. To address this, this study proposes a deep learning prediction model that integrates adaptive filtering and an attention mechanism. The method first preprocesses the original power series using an adaptive filtering algorithm (such as LMS or RLS) to smooth noise and extract underlying trends. Then, a core prediction model is constructed based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder framework embedded with an attention mechanism, enabling the model to dynamically focus on information from key historical time steps. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves satisfactory performance in terms of both prediction accuracy and robustness, thereby offering an effective solution for short-term power prediction.

     

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