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基于云边协同的光伏超短期功率预测校正方法

A Cloud-Edge Collaborative Approach for Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Correction

  • 摘要: 传统光伏功率预测方法多依赖物理或统计模型,难以充分刻画气象因素与光伏功率之间的复杂非线性关系,导致预测精度不足。对此,提出一种基于云边协同架构的光伏超短期功率预测校正方法。在边缘端利用通径分析构建气象特征库,提取关键影响因素;在云端融合BP神经网络与灰色系统理论,实现功率的初步预测与动态校正。实验结果表明,经所提方法校正后,BP神经网络预测值与实际值的平均绝对误差降至0.58%,较基于RBF神经网络和正则化极限学习机的对照方法分别降低0.41%和0.76%;在典型日功率波动剧烈时段,校正后的预测曲线与实际值拟合度显著提升,有效提高了光伏超短期功率预测的准确性与鲁棒性,可为电网调度提供更可靠的数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: Traditional photovoltaic power prediction methods predominantly rely on physical or statistical models, which struggle to adequately characterize the complex nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and photovoltaic power output, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction correction method based on a cloud-edge collaborative architecture. At the edge end, a meteorological feature database is constructed through path analysis to extract key influencing factors. At the cloud end, a hybrid approach integrating BP neural networks and grey system theory is employed to achieve preliminary power prediction and dynamic correction. Experimental results demonstrate that after correction, the average absolute error between BP neural network predictions and actual values decreases to 0.58%, representing reductions of 0.41% and 0.76% compared to control methods using RBF neural networks and regularized extreme learning machines, respectively. During periods of significant daily power fluctuations, the corrected prediction curves exhibit significantly improved fit with actual values, effectively enhancing the accuracy and robustness of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction. This method provides more reliable data support for grid dispatching.

     

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