基于transformer与主动对抗迁移学习的负荷预测数字孪生模型
A load forecasting digital twin model based on transformer and active adversarial transfer learning
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摘要: 针对实时客观因素造成电力负荷预测准确率下降,以及电力负荷高维非线性导致的模型训练时间长和泛化能力弱的问题,本文构建一种基于transformer与主动对抗迁移学习的负荷预测数字孪生模型。首先,搭建负荷预测的数字孪生框架,能够实现样本集和模型的实时更新。接着,基于原始历史负荷样本对transformer负荷预测模型进行训练,随着实时客观因素的变化进行样本集和模型更新,采用基于变分对抗的主动对抗迁移学习技术对未学习实时负荷样本进行筛选并训练,能够节省模型训练时间及提升模型泛化能力。最后,选取某市电力负荷数据验证本文所提方法的有效性。Abstract: In response to the challenges of decreasing accuracy in real-time electricity load forecasting caused by objective factors and the issues of lengthy model training time and weak generalization capabilities due to high-dimensional nonlinearity of electricity load, this paper proposes a load forecasting digital twin model based on transformer and active adversarial transfer learning. Firstly, we construct a digital twin framework for load forecasting that allows real-time updates of the sample set and model. Next, we train the transformer-based load forecasting model using original historical load samples, and update the sample set and model in real-time with changing objective factors. We employ variational adversarial active transfer learning to select and train real-time load samples not yet learned, which saves model training time and enhances model generalization capabilities. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using electricity load data from a city.
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