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融合全生命周期信息判别与时序注意力的风电机组剩余寿命预测方法

A Method for Predicting the Remaining Service Life of Wind Turbines by Integrating Full Lifecycle Information Discrimination and Temporal Attention

  • 摘要: 摘要:针对风电机组的剩余寿命预测结果易受环境波动导致预测精度较低的问题,提出一种融合全生命周期信息判别与时序注意力的剩余寿命预测方法。构建多源异构信息统一时序表征框架,并设计多任务DCGAN判别器,增设退化趋势一致性约束,生成工况鲁棒的深度健康指标;引入双阶段注意力时序网络,以拐点检测偏置增强早期退化响应灵敏度。实验结果表明,该方法预测MAPE低于2%、RMSE低于0.2,为风电机组全生命周期健康管理提供了高精度预测工具。

     

    Abstract: Abstract: To address the issue that residual life predictions for wind turbines are prone to environmental fluctuations, resulting in low prediction accuracy, this study proposes a residual life prediction method that integrates full life-cycle information discrimination with temporal attention. A unified temporal representation framework for multi-source heterogeneous information is constructed, and a multi-task DCGAN discriminator is designed with an additional constraint on the consistency of degradation trends to generate deep health indicators that are robust to operating conditions. A two-stage attention-based temporal network is introduced, with an inflection point detection bias to enhance the sensitivity of early-stage degradation responses. Experimental results show that this method achieves a MAPE below 2% and an RMSE below 0.2, providing a high-precision prediction tool for the full-lifecycle health management of wind turbines.

     

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