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基于Informer-encoder-SENet的

Research on Short-Term Multi-Step Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on Informer-encoder-SENet

  • 摘要: 针对光伏短期多步预测存在多维气象特征利用不充分、多步时序建模计算开销较高的问题,提出一种融合Informer 编码器与SENet通道注意力机制的光伏发电功率多步预测模型。模型以Informer编码器为基础,借助概率稀疏自注意力降低短时多变量时序建模的计算复杂度;在网络前端嵌入 SENet 模块,通过挤压-激励-重标定机制自适应提升辐照度等关键气象因子的特征权重。同时引入多尺度特征嵌入、多维度时间编码与编码器信息蒸馏策略,增强模型对日内多尺度功率波动的捕捉能力。基于实测光伏电站数据集开展验证,结果表明:所提模型各项评价指标均优于LSTM、Transformer、原始 Informer等对比模型,在晴天、多云、阴天各类日内天气场景下均具备良好预测鲁棒性,能够满足光伏电站日内调度的短期多步预测需求。

     

    Abstract: iming at the problems of insufficient utilization of multi-dimensional meteorological features and high computational overhead in multi-step time series modeling existing in short-term multi-step photovoltaic power forecasting, a multi-step photovoltaic power forecasting model integrating Informer encoder and SENet channel attention mechanism is proposed. Based on the Informer encoder, the model reduces the computational complexity of short-term multivariate time series modeling via probabilistic sparse self-attention. A SENet module is embedded at the front end of the network, which adaptively raises the feature weights of key meteorological factors such as irradiance through the squeeze-and-excitation recalibration mechanism. Meanwhile, multi-scale feature embedding, multi-dimensional time encoding and encoder information distillation strategies are introduced to strengthen the model’s capability of capturing intra-day multi-scale power fluctuations. Validations are carried out on measured photovoltaic power station datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms comparative models including LSTM, Transformer and vanilla Informer in all evaluation metrics. It exhibits favorable forecasting robustness under various intra-day weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy and overcast days, and can satisfy the short-term multi-step forecasting requirements for intra-day dispatching of photovoltaic power stations.

     

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