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极端自然灾害下配电网弹性提升的前后联动评估方法及针对性抢修策略

A Pre-/Post-Event Coordinated Assessment Methodology for Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Under Extreme Natural Hazards and Targeted Recovery Strategies

  • 摘要: 针对极端自然灾害条件下灾前预警与灾后抢修缺乏有效联动和针对性的问题,提出一种面向灾害场景的配电网弹性提升前后联动评估方法及针对性抢修策略。结合灾害类型及气象参数,基于电网截断概率模型计算节点故障概率,并构建故障风险指标,采用蒙特卡洛仿真与直流潮流计算评估节点失负荷量,以最大失负荷量和经济损失为目标对故障节点排序。在此基础上建立灾前预警与灾后抢修联动机制,合理调配应急电源车实施针对性抢修。通过IEEE 33节点系统算例验证了所提方法的有效性与可行性。

     

    Abstract: To address the lack of effective coordination and targeting between pre-disaster early warning and post-disaster repair under extreme natural disasters, a pre- and post-event coordinated assessment method for enhancing distribution network resilience and a targeted repair strategy are proposed. Considering disaster types and meteorological parameters, node failure probabilities are calculated based on a power network truncation probability model. On this basis, failure risk indices are constructed, and node load loss is evaluated using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and DC power flow analysis. Failure nodes are then prioritized by jointly considering the maximum load loss and economic loss. Subsequently, a coordinated mechanism linking pre-disaster early warning and post-disaster repair is established, and emergency power supply vehicles are optimally allocated to implement targeted repairs. Case studies on the IEEE 33-bus distribution system verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

     

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