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地下管廊电力线缆剩余寿命预测方法及其应用研究

Research on Remaining Life Prediction Method and Application of Power Cables in Underground Utility Tunnels

  • 摘要: 地下管廊电缆长期受温度、湿度及负荷的耦合作用,剩余寿命难以依据单次巡检温度直接判定。基于2024年南、北区电缆测温登记表,构建Arrhenius热老化约束与BP神经网络融合的剩余寿命预测模型。清洗后获得有效测温样本1341条,温度均值为28.52 ℃,最高温度为41.2 ℃;Fusion-BP模型在正常工况下的MAE为1.38年,在高负荷扰动工况下的RMSE为2.21年。该方法可将测温登记数据转化为寿命裕度和热点风险排序依据,为地下管廊电缆状态检修提供量化支撑。

     

    Abstract: The remaining life of power cables in underground utility tunnels is difficult to evaluate using isolated inspection temperature records because cable ageing is jointly affected by thermal stress, humidity, load variation and local installation conditions. Based on the 2024 temperature inspection records from the south and north sections of an underground utility tunnel, this study develops a hybrid remaining-life prediction model that combines an Arrhenius thermal ageing constraint with a BP neural network. After data cleaning, 1341 valid temperature samples were obtained, with an average temperature of 28.52 °C and a maximum temperature of 41.2 °C. The proposed Fusion-BP model achieved an MAE of 1.38 years under normal operating conditions and an RMSE of 2.21 years under high-load disturbance conditions. The proposed method transforms routine temperature registration data into quantifiable life margin and hot spot risk-ranking indicators, providing technical support for condition-based maintenance.

     

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