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基于LSTM-GRU的变压器损耗短期预测

A Short-Term Transformer Loss Forecasting Method Using a Hybrid LSTM–GRU Model

  • 摘要: 新型电力系统建设中可再生能源的波动性及电力电子装备的引入,使得变压器损耗由传统相对固定的参数变为复杂的动态变量。为实现变压器损耗的精准预测,本文综合变压器的运行电压、负载电流、负载率和绕组温度等多源参量,提出了含残差结构的LSTM-GRU混合神经网络变压器损耗短期预测方法。基于某变电站的220kV变压器的实测数据验证,所提方法预测精度达98.64%,性能优于单一LSTM和GRU网络模型。研究结果可为电网节能、变压器运行优化提供重要参考。

     

    Abstract: In the construction of the new power system, the volatility of renewable energy and the introduction of power electronic equipment have transformed transformer loss from a traditionally relatively fixed parameter into a complex dynamic variable. To achieve accurate prediction of transformer loss, this paper integrates multi-source parameters such as the operating voltage, load current, load rate, and winding temperature of the transformer, and proposes a short-term transformer loss prediction method based on an LSTM-GRU hybrid neural network with a residual structure. Verified by the measured data of a 220kV transformer in a substation, the proposed method achieves a prediction accuracy of 98.64% and outperforms the single LSTM and GRU network models. The research results can provide important references for power grid energy conservation and transformer operation optimization.

     

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