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基于CPSO-VMD-TCN-LSTM模型的风速预测研究

Research on Wind Speed Forecasting Based on CPSO-VMD-TCN-LSTM Model

  • 摘要: 针对风速序列非平稳性导致单一模型预测精度低的问题,提出融合混沌粒子群优化(CPSO)、变分模态分解(VMD)、时间卷积网络(TCN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的混合预测模型。利用CPSO自适应优化VMD参数,将风速序列分解为多个本征模态函数;构建TCN-LSTM网络提取局部与长时序特征。在Szeged和Jena数据集上的实验表明,所提模型的RMSE、MAE均优于对比模型,消融实验验证了模型有效性。

     

    Abstract: To address the low prediction accuracy of single models caused by the non-stationarity of wind speed series, a hybrid forecasting model integrating Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is proposed. CPSO is used to adaptively optimize VMD parameters, decomposing the wind speed series into multiple intrinsic mode functions. A TCN-LSTM network is then constructed to extract both local and long-term temporal features. Experiments on the Szeged and Jena datasets demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms comparison models in terms of RMSE, and MAE, and ablation experiments verify the effectiveness of the model.

     

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