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融合“五度电”、产业链关联与风险预警的区域经济综合评价模型研究

A Comprehensive Regional Economic Evaluation Model Integrating the

  • 摘要: 针对现有电力经济分析方法存在评价维度单一、产业协同刻画不足及动态风险识别能力有限等问题,构建融合“五度电”评价、产业链关联评价与风险预警评价的区域经济综合评价模型。首先建立覆盖经济发展质量、产业协同能力和运行风险的评价指标体系;其次采用熵权法、Pearson相关分析及ARIMA预测、Isolation Forest异常检测等方法构建各评价模块,并通过加权融合形成综合评价结果。结果表明,该模型能够实现区域经济运行状态的多维评价与动态监测,兼顾经济发展质量、产业链协同水平及风险识别能力,可为政府经济运行监测和产业决策提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the limitations of existing electricity-based economic analysis methods, including limited evaluation dimensions, insufficient characterization of industrial chain collaboration, and inadequate capability for dynamic risk identification, this paper proposes a comprehensive regional economic evaluation model integrating the "Five-Dimension Electricity Evaluation" (FDEE), industrial chain correlation analysis, and risk early warning. First, an evaluation index system covering economic development quality, industrial collaboration, and operational risk is established. Subsequently, the entropy weight method, Pearson correlation analysis, ARIMA forecasting, and the Isolation Forest algorithm are employed to develop the corresponding evaluation modules, whose results are integrated through a weighted aggregation approach. The proposed model enables multidimensional evaluation and dynamic monitoring of regional economic performance while simultaneously reflecting economic development quality, industrial chain coordination, and operational risk. The model can provide technical support for regional economic monitoring and assist government agencies in economic analysis and industrial policy decision-making.

     

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