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基于自适应融合与误差补偿的光伏电站短期功率预测方法

Short-Term Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Stations Based on Adaptive Fusion and Error Compensation

  • 摘要: 目的:针对光伏电站短期功率预测中单一模型难以兼顾精度与稳定性的问题,提出LR-RF自适应融合及误差补偿方法。方法:对历史运行与气象数据进行异常值处理、缺失值填补、特征筛选、滞后特征构造和标准化预处理,建立LR、RF基模型,并依据近期预测性能与气象场景特征动态分配权重,引入滑动窗口偏差修正与场景化误差补偿。结果:实验表明,所提方法在RMSE、MAE、MAPE和R2等指标上优于单一模型及无补偿融合模型。结论:该方法预测精度和稳定性较好,具有一定工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the problem that a single model cannot balance prediction accuracy and stability in the short-term power prediction of photovoltaic power stations, an adaptive fusion method combining LR-RF with error compensation is proposed. Firstly, data preprocessing including outlier elimination, missing value filling, feature screening, lag feature construction and standardization is carried out on historical operational and meteorological data. Then, linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) are constructed as base models. On this basis, weights are dynamically assigned according to recent prediction performance and meteorological scenario characteristics. Meanwhile, sliding window deviation correction and scenario-based error compensation are introduced. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms single models and fusion models without compensation in evaluation indicators including RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2. This method possesses superior prediction accuracy and stability, and has practical engineering application value.

     

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