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基于K-Means++聚类与多时间窗加权Stacking的光伏功率预测方法

Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method Based on K-Means++ Clustering and Multi-Time Window Weighted Stacking

  • 摘要: 针对复杂气象条件下光伏发电功率波动性强、间歇性显著以及单一预测模型精度受限的问题,本文提出一种融合K-Means++聚类与多时间窗加权Stacking集成学习的光伏功率预测方法。首先对光伏电站实测功率及气象数据进行清洗和特征构建,并基于动态晴空指数与K-Means++聚类方法将样本划分为晴天、阴天和雨天三类。在此基础上,构建由XGBoost、ExtraTrees、Random Forest、KNN和Ridge组成的异构预测框架,并根据不同学习器的建模特点设计差异化特征输入通道。最后采用多时间窗加权Stacking融合策略,并结合安全锚定机制,提高模型在复杂天气条件下的预测稳定性与泛化能力。实验结果表明,在晴天条件下,所提Stacking模型的RMSE和MAE相较最优单一模型分别降低1.14%和1.52%;在阴天和雨天条件下,RMSE分别降低0.19%和1.18%,MAE分别降低0.64%和1.32%。该方法能够有效提升复杂气象条件下光伏功率预测精度,可为光伏电站优化运行和电网安全调度提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the strong fluctuations, pronounced intermittency, and limited predictive accuracy of single models in photovoltaic power generation under complex meteorological conditions, this paper proposes a photovoltaic power forecasting method that integrates K-Means++ clustering with multi-time-window weighted Stacking ensemble learning. First, the measured data from a photovoltaic power station are cleaned and feature-engineered, and weather types are classified using K-Means++. Then, a heterogeneous forecasting framework composed of XGBoost, ExtraTrees, RF, KNN, and Ridge is constructed, and robust fusion is achieved through multi-time-window weighted Stacking and a safety-anchoring mechanism. Under sunny conditions, the RMSE and MAE of the Stacking model are reduced by 1.14% and 1.52%, respectively, compared with the best single model. Under cloudy and rainy conditions, the RMSE is reduced by 0.19% and 1.18%, respectively, while the MAE is reduced by 0.64% and 1.32%, respectively. The proposed method can provide technical support for the optimal operation of photovoltaic power stations and the secure dispatch of power grids under complex meteorological conditions.

     

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