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电力装备碳足迹动态核算模型与不确定性量化

Dynamic carbon footprint accounting model and uncertainty quantification for power equipment

  • 摘要: 针对电力装备制造碳足迹静态核算置信度不足的问题,建立电碳协同动态核算与不确定性量化模型。构建CT低负荷与谐波误差补偿模型,引入Shapley值分配共用设备碳流,融合DQI矩阵与Sobol方差分解量化不确定性。10 000 kVA变压器算例表明,动态碳足迹为38.35 tCO?e,较静态基线高4.7%;95%置信区间为35.58, 41.52 tCO?e;硅钢片与电网因子为核心降碳杠杆。模型揭示了低负荷计量误差的积分放大效应,为装备制造能效管理提供量化支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the insufficient confidence of static carbon footprint accounting in power equipment manufacturing, a dynamic accounting and uncertainty quantification model based on electricity-carbon integrated metering is established. A compensation model for current transformer (CT) ratio and phase errors under low-load and harmonic conditions is constructed, the Shapley value method is introduced to allocate carbon flows of shared equipment, and the data quality indicator (DQI) matrix is integrated with Sobol variance decomposition to quantify uncertainty propagation. A case study on a 10 000 kVA oil-immersed transformer shows that the dynamic carbon footprint is 38.35 tCO2e, 4.7% higher than the static baseline, with a 95% confidence interval of 35.58, 41.52 tCO2e. The embodied carbon of silicon steel sheets and the regional grid emission factor are identified as the dominant carbon reduction levers. The model reveals the integral amplification effect of metering errors under prolonged low-load conditions, providing quantitative support for refined energy efficiency management in power equipment manufacturing.

     

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