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面向老旧10kV箱式变电站的安全提升与经济性改造策略研究

Research on Safety Enhancement and Cost-Effective Retrofit Strategies for Aging 10kV Box-Type Substations

  • 摘要: 针对早期投运的老旧10kV箱式变电站普遍存在的设备老化、绝缘劣化及运行环境恶化等安全隐患,以及整体更换成本高昂的现实矛盾,本文研究如何在有限预算下实现安全提升与经济可行的平衡。通过构建涵盖设备本体、运行环境及历史绩效的多维度健康状态量化评估体系(HHI),精准识别设备老化模式与风险根源。在此基础上,系统提出了整体更换(S1)、关键设备局部更换(S2)、加装预制舱式模块(S3)及纵向扩容改造(S4)四种差异化改造策略。为科学比选方案,本研究融合全生命周期成本(LCC, Life Cycle Cost)分析与安全提升指数(SSI, Security Enhancement Index),构建了以“单位安全提升成本(CPSI, Cost Per Security Improvement)”为核心的综合决策模型,并结合模糊多属性决策方法进行策略优选。案例分析表明,差异化改造策略能以整体更换30%-60%的成本,实现80%以上的安全提升效益,具备显著的性价比。本文形成了一套从状态评估、策略比选到决策支持的完整方法体系,为电网企业老旧箱式变电站的精细化、经济性改造提供了科学依据与实践指南。

     

    Abstract: In view of the prevalent safety hazards in early-stage 10kV box-type substations, such as equipment aging, insulation deterioration, and deteriorating operating environments, as well as the practical challenge of high costs associated with complete replacement, this paper investigates how to strike a balance between safety enhancement and economic feasibility under limited budgets. By establishing a multi-dimensional health state quantification assessment system (HHI) encompassing the equipment itself, operating environment, and historical performance, the aging patterns and root causes of risks are accurately identified. Building upon this, the study systematically proposes four differentiated retrofit strategies: complete replacement (S1), partial replacement of key equipment (S2), addition of prefabricated cabin modules (S3), and vertical capacity expansion (S4). To enable scientific comparison and selection of solutions, this research integrates Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis and a Security Enhancement Index (SSI) to construct a comprehensive decision-making model centered on "Cost Per Security Improvement (CPSI)", employing fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods for strategy optimization. Case analysis demonstrates that differentiated retrofit strategies can achieve over 80% of the safety enhancement benefits at only 30%-60% of the cost of complete replacement, highlighting significant cost-effectiveness.This paper develops a complete methodological framework covering condition assessment, strategy comparison, and decision support, providing a scientific basis and practical guide for power grid enterprises in the refined and economical retrofitting of aging box-type substations.

     

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