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基于K-means聚类和改进LSTNet方法的光伏发电功率预测

Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on K-means Clustering and Improved LSTNet Method

  • 摘要: 为提高光伏发电功率预测精度,针对传统长短期时间序列网络(Long-and Short-term Time-series network,LSTNet)模型在长期依赖信息建模及多变量复杂动态关系表征方面存在的不足,提出了一种基于K-means聚类与改进LSTNet(ILSTNet)的光伏发电功率预测方法。首先,对原始样本进行异常数据剔除与相关性分析,筛选出对光伏出力影响较大的关键气象特征;其次,采用K-means算法对样本进行聚类,以刻画不同工况下光伏功率数据的分布差异,并结合赤池信息量准则(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)和贝叶斯信息量准则(Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC)确定最优聚类数;然后,在LSTNet基础上引入编码-解码结构,并融合卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network,CNN)与Transformer模块,实现局部时序特征、全局依赖关系与序列长期动态信息的协同提取。结果表明,所提出的Kmeans-ILSTNet模型在RMSE、MAE等评价指标上均优于对比模型,验证了其在光伏发电功率预测中的有效性和优越性。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting, a photovoltaic power forecasting method based on K-means clustering and an improved Long- and Short-term Time-series Network (LSTNet) is proposed to address the limitations of the traditional LSTNet model in modeling long-term dependency information and representing complex dynamic relationships in multivariate data. First, abnormal data in the original samples are removed, and correlation analysis is conducted to identify key meteorological features that have a significant impact on photovoltaic output. Then, the K-means algorithm is employed to cluster the samples so as to characterize the distribution differences of photovoltaic power data under different operating conditions, and the optimal number of clusters is determined using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Furthermore, an encoder-decoder structure is introduced on the basis of LSTNet, and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and a Transformer module are integrated to achieve the coordinated extraction of local temporal features, global dependency relationships, and long-term dynamic information of the sequence. The results show that the proposed Kmeans-ILSTNet model outperforms the comparison models in evaluation metrics such as RMSE and MAE, thereby verifying its effectiveness and superiority in photovoltaic power forecasting.

     

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