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计及机组状态信息修正的风电功率超短期预测

Wind Power Ultra-short-term Prediction Considering Status Information Correction of Wind Turbines

  • 摘要: 精确的风电功率超短期预测对支撑电网调度决策与减小电网运行成本至关重要。本文针对风电机组运行时的持续劣化问题,探讨了机组状态对风电功率预测的影响。首先基于模糊综合评价法,开展机组状态评估。然后,根据评估结果构建多维风电功率预测模型。结合机组状态评估结果与数值天气预报数据,通过卷积神经网络和长短期记忆网络对风电功率进行超短期预测。算例结果显示,所提方法能够减少机组状态对功率预测的干扰,提高预测准确性。

     

    Abstract: Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is vital for optimizing grid scheduling and reducing operational costs. This paper addresses the continuous degradation of wind turbines during operation and its impact on wind power prediction. Initially, a unit status assessment is conducted using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Subsequently, based on these assessment results, a multidimensional wind power prediction model is developed. By integrating the unit status evaluation with numerical weather forecast data, ultra-short-term wind power predictions are made using convolutional neural networks and long short-term memory networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively mitigates the interference of unit status on power prediction, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.

     

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