高级检索

融合气象影响的短期负荷集成预测方法研究

Research on Integrated Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Incorporating Meteorological Influences

  • 摘要: 随着近年新能源发电量占比提升和气候变化日益显著,电力系统对短期负荷预测的精度提出了更高要求。基于某省电力系统历史负荷数据,结合日96点典型负荷曲线和气象特性数据,提出融合气象因素的随机森林与XGBoost预测方法,以及一种集成算法模型的负荷预测框架。实验结果表明,该方法在预测精度上显著优于传统单一预测模型,验证了综合模型在复杂气象条件下的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The increasing integration of renewable energy and the growing impact of climate change have placed higher demands on the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in power systems. Based on historical load data from a provincial power system—including daily 96-point load profiles and meteorological characteristics—this paper proposes an integrated forecasting framework that combines random forest and XGBoost methods with meteorological factors. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms traditional single-model methods in forecasting accuracy, validating its effectiveness under complex meteorological conditions.

     

/

返回文章
返回