高级检索

基于不确定性分析模型的风光储参与电力市场交易优化研究

Research on Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting Based on an Improved LSTM Algorithm

  • 摘要: 受不确定性影响,清洁能源发电机组需要备用机组来缓解其不确定性引发的问题。随着储能技术的发展,其灵活充放电特性可减少清洁能源发电机组参与电力市场时产生的偏差。首先构建风电运营商、光伏运营商及储能运营商在独立模式与协同模式下的运行机制。其次构建风电与光伏的不确定性分析模型,基于拉丁超立方场景生成法与同步反向发电量缩减法,提出处理清洁能源发电不确定性的解决方案。然后分别在风险中性情境与基于CVaR的风险非中性情境下,构建独立模式与协同模式下风电、光伏及储能运营商的日前交易优化模型。最后选取北方区域作为研究背景,设置多组案例,运用CPLEX求解器对优化模型进行求解,验证所提策略与模型的有效性。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges posed by the uncertainty of clean energy generation to electricity market transactions, this paper investigates the coordinated optimization problem among wind power operators, photovoltaic operators, and energy storage operators in the current market. First, a transaction mechanism framework is established for the independent and coordinated market participation of these three parties. Second, Latin hypercube sampling and simultaneous back-substitution reduction methods are applied to address wind and solar output uncertainty, alongside establishing an energy storage system model. Subsequently, current transaction optimization models are developed under both risk-neutral and risk-non-neutral scenarios based on conditional value-at-risk theory. Finally, simulation analysis is conducted using the CPLEX solver, applying a case study from a region in northern. Results indicate that energy storage participation effectively reduces clean energy curtailment and lowers penalty costs; the tripartite coordination model further enhances overall benefits compared to independent participation; and risk confidence levels require reasonable setting, as excessively high levels lead to reduced benefits. This study provides decision-making references for high-penetration renewable energy participation in electricity markets.

     

/

返回文章
返回