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融合功率预测与阈值识别的电力调度稳定性调控分析

Analysis of Power Dispatch Stability Control Integrating Power Forecasting and Threshold Identification

  • 摘要: 为应对高比例新能源并网带来的稳定性挑战,提出一种融合功率预测与稳定性阈值识别的电力调度调控策略。该策略利用深度学习进行源荷功率概率性预测,并基于机器学习辨识系统动态稳定阈值,进而构建计及预防性稳定约束的多目标优化调度模型。仿真结果表明,该策略能有效提升系统在不确定性扰动下的运行韧性与稳定性。

     

    Abstract: To address the stability challenges posed by the high proportion of renewable energy grid connection, this paper proposes a power dispatch control strategy that integrates power forecasting and stability threshold identification. This strategy employs deep learning for probabilistic power forecasting of generation and load, and utilizes machine learning to identify system dynamic stability thresholds. Based on these, a multi-objective optimization dispatch model incorporating preventive stability constraints is constructed. Simulation results demonstrate that this strategy effectively enhances the system's operational resilience and stability under uncertain disturbances.

     

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