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融合预测反馈机制的风电接纳能力动态评估方法研究

Research on Dynamic Assessment Method of Wind Power Grid Integration Capacity with Integrated Forecasting Feedback Mechanism

  • 摘要: 针对风功率波动导致电网运行约束动态变化的问题,设计基于风功率预测的电网风电接纳能力动态评估体系。构建改进型LSTM多尺度预测模型,引入灵敏度校正与动态约束反馈机制,形成预测-优化-校核闭环评估流程。基于山东智绘电力公司典型电网数据的验证结果显示所设计体系可使多负荷场景下接纳功率提升约13%,预测误差控制在±5%时电压稳定指数达0.94,具备较强的实时性与工程应用价值。

     

    Abstract: To address the issue of dynamic changes in grid operation constraints caused by wind power fluctuations, a dynamic assessment system for wind power grid integration capacity based on wind power forecasting is proposed. An improved LSTM multi-scale forecasting model is developed, incorporating sensitivity correction and dynamic constraint feedback mechanisms, forming a closed-loop process of forecasting-optimization-verification. Validation using typical grid data from Shandong Zhihui Electric Power Company shows that the designed system improves the acceptance power by approximately 13% under multiple load scenarios. When the forecasting error is controlled within ±5%, the voltage stability index reaches 0.94, demonstrating strong real-time performance and engineering application value.

     

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