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基于伊藤过程与模糊机会约束的含光热电站电网的优化调度

Optimal Dispatching of Power Grid Containing Concentrated Solar Power Plants Based on Itô Stochastic Process and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming

  • 摘要: 考虑光热电站出力不确定性对电网调度的影响,提出了一种基于伊藤过程和模糊机会约束的电网优化调度方法。首先,利用伊藤过程对光热电站的关键影响因素--直接辐射指数(DNI)的预测误差进行精确建模,以捕捉其随机波动特性。其次,基于伊藤过程对DNI预测误差的模拟结果,构建梯形隶属度函数以量化其不确定性。再进一步,将此不确定性描述融入模糊机会约束规划模型,以实现含光热电站电网的优化调度。此外,将模糊机会约束转化为清晰等价类,保证了模型的可解性。最后,通过算例分析验证了所提方法的优越性。研究结果表明,所提方法能更好地应对DNI的不确定性,提高光热电站的利用率,并降低系统总运行成本。

     

    Abstract: To consider the impact of output uncertainty of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants on grid dispatching, this paper proposes a optimal dispatching methodology based on the Itô stochastic process and fuzzy chance-constrained programming. Firstly, the Itô stochastic process is utilized to accurately model the prediction error of the direct normal irradiance (DNI) to capture its random volatility. Secondly, based on the simulation results of the DNI prediction error, the Itô process is used to construct and quantify the uncertainty of the power generation. Furthermore, this uncertainty description is integrated into a fuzzy chance-constrained model, enabling the power grid dispatching problem for CSP plants to be transformed into an explicit equivalent form that is readily solvable. Finally, the superiority of the proposed method is verified through case study analysis. The results indicate that the proposed method can better characterize the uncertainty of DNI, improve the utilization rate of the CSP plant, and reduce the operating cost of the system.

     

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