基于Transformer的熔盐储热温度序列预测及其在电力调度中的应用
Transformer-Based Temperature Prediction for Molten Salt Thermal Storage and Its Use in Power Dispatch
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摘要: 基于新能源发电中储能技术的重要性及熔盐储热温度预测对电力调度的关键作用,以某光热电站800 MWh熔盐储热系统为背景,聚焦温度序列预测难题,探索了基于Transformer的深度学习模型的应用。通过构建6层编码器结构的预测模型,结合多头自注意力机制和时序一致性约束,捕捉温度变化的非线性特征与长期依赖关系,并设计了多时间尺度协调调度框架,将预测结果应用于电力调度策略优化。研究表明,该模型能有效提升温度预测精度,为储热系统与发电机组的协调运行提供可靠依据,同时在实际调度中展现出显著的经济与稳定性优势。Abstract: With the growing need for energy storage in renewable power, accurate temperature prediction of molten salt thermal storage is key to efficient power dispatch. This study uses data from an 800 MWh molten salt storage system in a solar thermal plant. We propose a Transformer-based model with six encoder layers, multi-head self-attention, and time consistency constraints to predict temperature changes. The model captures non-linear patterns and long-term trends in temperature data. Predictions are then used in a multi-time-scale dispatch framework to improve power scheduling. Results show higher prediction accuracy and better economic and stable performance in real-world operations.
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