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基于贝叶斯网络的电力信息网络多源威胁态势评估模型

Multi Source Threat Situation Assessment Model for Power Information Network Based on Bayesian Network

  • 摘要: 为提升电力信息网络的安全防护能力,研究针对多源威胁的动态评估问题,构建了一种基于贝叶斯网络的态势评估模型。通过深入分析电力信息网络中物理层与信息层的威胁特征,结合贝叶斯网络的概率推理机制,设计了包含威胁源层、状态评估层和综合态势层的三层评估框架,量化了威胁因素间的依赖关系与动态演变规律,并提出了基于精确推理与近似推理相结合的求解策略。研究结果表明,该模型能有效识别设备故障、网络攻击等多源威胁的叠加效应,为电力系统安全决策提供科学依据,显著提升了威胁态势感知的准确性与实时性,为保障电网稳定运行奠定了理论基础。

     

    Abstract: In order to enhance the security protection capability of power information networks, a dynamic assessment problem for multi-source threats is studied, and a situation assessment model based on Bayesian networks is constructed. By deeply analyzing the threat characteristics of the physical layer and information layer in the power information network, combined with the probabilistic inference mechanism of Bayesian networks, a three-layer evaluation framework including the threat source layer, state evaluation layer, and comprehensive situation layer was designed. The dependency relationship and dynamic evolution law between threat factors were quantified, and a solution strategy based on a combination of precise inference and approximate inference was proposed. The research results indicate that the model can effectively identify the cumulative effects of multi-source threats such as equipment failures and network attacks, providing a scientific basis for power system security decision-making, significantly improving the accuracy and real-time perception of threat situations, and laying a theoretical foundation for ensuring the stable operation of the power grid.

     

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