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基于CNN-Seq2Seq-Attention的电动自行车充电负荷预测方法

An Electric Bicycle Charging Load Forecasting Method Based on CNN-Seq2Seq-Attention

  • 摘要: 为应对电动自行车充电不当引发的火灾风险,精准负荷预测至关重要。由于现有方法难以直接应用,因此提出一种基于CNN-Seq2Seq-Attention的负荷预测方法,其核心是融合卷积神经网络(CNN)、双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)与加性注意力的序列到序列(Seq2Seq)架构,提升了预测精度。基于真实数据集的实验表明,消融实验验证了CNN与加性注意力的有效性,对比实验显示该模型在不同预测时长下MAE与MAPE指标最优,证实其在复杂工况下的实用性。

     

    Abstract: To address the fire risks caused by improper electric bicycle charging, accurate load forecasting is crucial. As existing methods are difficult to apply directly, this paper proposes a load forecasting method based on CNN-Seq2Seq-Attention. The core of the method is a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) architecture that integrates a convolutional neural network (CNN), a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), and an additive attention mechanism to improve forecasting accuracy. Experiments on a real-world dataset show that ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of the CNN and the additive attention mechanism. Comparative experiments demonstrate that the model achieves optimal MAE and MAPE metrics across different prediction horizons, confirming its practical utility under complex conditions.

     

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