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基于图神经网络的水电厂现货市场短期发电收益预测模型

Short-Term Generation Revenue Forecasting Model for Hydropower Plants in the Spot Market Based on Graph Neural Network

  • 摘要: 随着电力市场改革的深入推进,水电厂在现货市场中的短期发电收益预测成为制定发电策略、提升经济效益的关键环节。提出一种基于图神经网络(GNN)的短期发电收益预测模型,将收益预测问题建模为多图时空联合优化问题,构建双通道GNN框架提取电网拓扑特征与历史时序特征,并引入分位数损失函数与物理约束惩罚项提升模型鲁棒性,有效解决了传统模型的预测精度低、抗波动能力弱的问题。

     

    Abstract: With the deepening of power market reform, short-term generation revenue forecasting in the spot market has become a key link for hydropower plants to formulate generation strategies and improve economic benefits. This paper proposes a short-term revenue forecasting model based on a graph neural network (GNN). The forecasting problem is modeled as a multi-graph spatiotemporal joint optimization problem. A dual-channel GNN framework is constructed to extract grid topology features and historical temporal features. In addition, a quantile loss function and a physical-constraint penalty term are introduced to enhance model robustness, effectively addressing the low prediction accuracy and weak anti-fluctuation ability of traditional models.

     

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