高级检索

光伏组件衰减机理下的运维策略优化与寿命预测模型

Optimization of Operation and Maintenance Strategies and Life Prediction Model Based on the Attenuation Mechanism of Photovoltaic Modules

  • 摘要: 光伏组件在户外长期运行中受多重环境应力作用导致性能衰减,准确建立衰减机理模型并优化运维策略对提升经济效益具有重要意义。通过分析组件功率衰减的物理机制,建立了基于阿伦尼乌斯方程与威布尔分布的多阶段衰减动力学模型,量化了环境因素对组件寿命的耦合影响规律,构建了全生命周期成本最小化的运维策略优化模型,采用改进遗传算法求解最优维护方案。仿真结果表明,优化运维策略可将组件平均寿命延长至27.8年,全生命周期运维成本降低23.4%。

     

    Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) modules experience performance degradation due to multiple environmental stresses during long-term outdoor operation. Accurately establishing a degradation mechanism model and optimizing operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies are crucial for enhancing economic benefits. By analyzing the physical mechanism of module power degradation, a multi-stage degradation dynamics model based on the Arrhenius equation and Weibull distribution was established. This model quantifies the coupled influence of environmental factors on module lifespan. An O&M strategy optimization model for minimizing total lifecycle costs was constructed, and an improved genetic algorithm was used to solve for the optimal maintenance plan. Simulation verification indicates that optimizing O&M strategies can extend the average lifespan of modules to 27.8 years and reduce total lifecycle O&M costs by 23.4%.

     

/

返回文章
返回