考虑错分代价的电力物资敏捷供应链需求AdaBoost回归预测模型
AdaBoost Regression Prediction Model for Agile Supply Chain Demand of Power Materials Considering Misclassification Cost
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摘要: 为实现对电力物资需求的精准预测,基于错分代价角度,构建电力物资敏捷供应链需求AdaBoost回归预测模型。在电力物资供应链中,数据具有强非线性、高维、错分代价不平衡等特点。针对此特点,在考虑错分代价的基础上,进行电力物资供应链需求数据的集中处理;设计基于AdaBoost回归的敏捷需求集成学习模型,对多个基本预测值进行权重融合,提高对高波动和高成本需求的预测能力;通过对样本权重的迭代加权学习,调整样本的权重,集成弱学习器的组合,实现预测模型的优化。对比实验结果表明,设计的方法不仅能实现电力物资敏捷供应链需求的预测,还能在降低预测结果偏差的基础上,控制预测模型训练损失度,保证预测结果的高可靠性。Abstract: In order to achieve accurate prediction of demand for power materials, based on the perspective of misclassification cost, an AdaBoost regression prediction model for agile supply chain demand of power materials is constructed. In the power supply chain, data has characteristics such as strong nonlinearity, high dimensionality, and imbalanced cost of misclassification. Based on this characteristic and considering the cost of misclassification, centralized processing of demand data in the power material supply chain is carried out; design an agile requirement ensemble learning model based on AdaBoost regression, which integrates weights of multiple basic prediction values to improve the predictive ability for high volatility and high cost requirements; by iteratively weighted learning of sample weights, adjusting the weights of samples, and integrating a combination of weak learners, the optimization of the prediction model is achieved. The comparative experimental results show that the designed method can not only achieve the prediction of agile supply chain demand for power materials, but also control the training loss of the prediction model while reducing the deviation of the prediction results, ensuring the high reliability of the prediction results.
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