基于改进生成对抗网络和门控循环单元的短期光伏发电功率预测研究
Research on Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction Based on Improved Generative Adversarial Network and Gated Recurrent Unit*
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摘要: 太阳能具有随机性、波动性和间歇性,使得光伏发电很难直接接入电网,因此需要对光伏发电进行功率预测研究,以提高光伏发电的消纳能力和电网的可靠性。提出了一种基于改进生成对抗网络和门控循环单元的短期光伏发电功率预测方法。首先通过K均值聚类算法(K-means Clustering Algorithm,K-means)进行相似日划分,将原始数据集划分为晴天、多云和雨天3种天气,并采用含有梯度惩罚的改进生成对抗网络(Wasserstein Generate Adversarial Networks with Gradient Penalty,WGAN-GP),对数据量较少的多云、雨天天气进行数据增强。其次通过鲸鱼优化算法(Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA)优化带有注意力机制的门控循环单元(Gated Recirculating Unit with Attention Mechanisms,GRU-Attention)光伏预测方法,对网络的初始学习率、批量大小和隐含层节点数进行寻优,提高光伏发电功率的预测精度。为了验证所提方法的有效性,基于Python环境搭建了功率预测算法模型,与未经优化的GRU-Attention网络和带有注意力机制的卷积长短期记忆网络(Convolutional Long-term Neural Network with Attention Mechanism,CNN-LSTM-Attention)进行预测对比,结果显示,所提方法的归一化均方根误差和归一化平均绝对误差在3种天气状况下最大下降了6.47%和5.18%,在进行数据增强后,多云和雨天天气的预测误差进一步下降。Abstract: Solar energy exhibits randomness, volatility, and intermittency, making it difficult to directly integrate photovoltaic power generation into the grid. Therefore, research on PV power prediction is essential to enhance the absorption capacity of PV generation and the reliability of the grid. This paper proposes a short-term PV power prediction method based on an improved generative adversarial network and a gated recurrent unit. First, the original dataset is categorized into three weather types-sunny, cloudy, and rainy-using the K-means clustering algorithm (K-means) for similar-day classification. Wasserstein generative adversarial networks with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP) is employed to perform data augmentation for cloudy and rainy days, which have limited data availability. Next, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used to optimize the gated recurrent unit with attention mechanisms (GRU-Attention) for PV power prediction. The algorithm fine-tunes the initial learning rate, batch size, and number of hidden layer nodes to improve prediction accuracy. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a power prediction algorithm model was developed in a Python environment. Comparative experiments were conducted with the non-optimized GRU-Attention network and a convolutional long short-term memory neural network with attention mechanism (CNN-LSTM-Attention). The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves maximum reductions of 6.47% and 5.18% in normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), respectively, across all three weather conditions. After data augmentation, the prediction errors for rainy and cloudy days have further decreased.
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