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基于TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM组合模型的光伏功率预测

Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on a Combined TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM Mode*

  • 摘要: 为克服天气条件的不确定性以及高维光伏功率和环境数据的非线性,提出一种基于TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM的光伏功率预测组合模型架构。以澳大利亚DKASC光伏电站2019年度高维光伏功率及环境数据作为研究对象,首先对光伏和环境监测数据进行皮尔逊相关性分析和归一化处理,然后采用时空卷积网络(TCN)作为数据空间特征提取层提取特征,并将运算结果输入Transformer模块,通过其多头自注意力机制有效捕捉全局时空关系,同时提高TCN的特征捕获能力;随后,通过双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)计算数据中的过去和未来的信息以实现最终的光伏功率预测。通过计算分析,TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM模型的计算结果均优于其他组合模型或单一模型结构。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the uncertainty of weather conditions and the nonlinear characteristics of high-dimensional photovoltaic power and environmental data, this paper proposes a combined photovoltaic power prediction model architecture based on TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM. Using high-dimensional photovoltaic and environmental data from the DKASC photovoltaic power plant in Australia for the year 2019 as the research subject, Pearson correlation analysis and normalization processing are first performed on the photovoltaic and environmental monitoring data. Then, a temporal-spatial convolutional network (TCN) is employed as the data spatial feature extraction layer, with the computation results fed into the Transformer module. Through its multi-head self-attention mechanism, the Transformer effectively captures global temporal-spatial relationships while enhancing the feature capture capability of the TCN; subsequently, a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) was used to calculate past and future information in the data to achieve the final photovoltaic power prediction. Through computational analysis, the results of the TCN-Transformer-BiLSTM model outperformed those of other combination models or single model structures.

     

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