计及新能源影响的温敏自适应220 kV母线日前负荷预测
Day-ahead 220 kV Load Power Forecasting Considering the Impact of Renewable Power and Temperature Sensitivity
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摘要: 准确的日前负荷预测结果是保障电网安全稳定运行与电力市场有效运作的重要信息来源。然而,新能源发电并网容量与用户用电负荷随机性的增长对母线日前负荷预测精度提升形成严峻考验。为提高220 kV母线日前负荷预测精度,提出一种计及新能源影响的温敏自适应220 kV母线日前负荷预测方法。首先,基于历史新能源场站实测出力对母线量测数据进行多重负荷解耦,并结合辐照度等气象信息对新能源出力进行日前预测;然后,基于温敏自适应算法结合温度信息对净负荷进行日前预测;最后,将新能源出力与用户净负荷日前预测结果叠加重构,得到最终母线日前负荷预测结果。在实际220 kV母线开展测试,相比于传统机器学习模型,所提方法能够有效提高220 kV母线日前负荷预测的精度和鲁棒性。Abstract: Accurate day-ahead load power forecasting is a crucial data foundation to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid and the effective functioning of the electricity market. However, the increasing randomness of grid-connected renewable energy and customer behaviors poses significant challenges on the accuracy of day-ahead bus load power forecasting. To improve the accuracy of 220 kV bus day-ahead load forecasting, a temperature-sensitive adaptive 220 kV bus day-ahead load forecasting method considering the impact of renewable power and temperature sensitivity is proposed. First, multiple load decoupling is performed on the load power measurements based on historical renewable power measurements, where meteorological observations is also combined to predict the renewable energy output day-ahead. Then, a temperature-sensitive adaptive algorithm is proposed to predict the net load day-ahead based on temperature information. Finally, the day-ahead forecasts of renewable energy output and user net load are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final day-ahead load power forecasts. Based on practical 220 kV data, experimental results show that, compared with traditional machine learning models, the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy and robustness of 220 kV bus day-ahead load power forecasting.
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