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基于异质相似度选择的集成即时学习超短期风电功率预测

Ensemble Just-In-Time Learning Based on Heterogeneous Similarity Selection for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

  • 摘要: 准确的风电功率预测为制定发电计划、统筹调度等提供必要的指导依据,以LWPLS为局部建模技术,提出一种基于异质相似度选择的集成即时学习超短期风电功率预测方法。首先,通过构建异质相似度以适应风力发电不同的过程状态,同时建立多个即时学习局部模型。其次,考虑到异质相似度中并非所有相似度都适合当前风力发电过程状态,采用进化多目标优化对相似度函数进行选择,建立满足准确性和多样性的次优局部模型。最后,通过Stacking集成策略将次优局部模型进行融合并得到最终风电功率预测输出。以云南省某风电场的真实数据验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Accurate wind power forecasting provides essential guidance for formulating power generation plans and coordinated dispatching. This paper proposes a heterogeneous similarity-selective ensemble just-in-time learning method (HS-ELWPLS) using locally weighted partial least squares (LWPLS) for ultra-short-term forecasting. First, we construct heterogeneous similarity metrics to adapt to varying wind power process states and establish multiple just-in-time learning (JIT) local models. Second, since not all similarity frameworks suit current operational conditions, evolutionary multi-objective optimization is employed to select similarity functions, generating accurate yet diverse sub-models. Finally, a Stacking ensemble strategy integrates these sub-models for final predictions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the real data of wind farms in Yunnan Province.

     

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