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基于系统动力学的光伏发电系统成本效益仿真分析

Study on Cost-Benefit Simulation of Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems Based on System Dynamics

  • 摘要: 在全球能源低碳化转型加速推进的背景下,光伏发电技术因其清洁环保、可再生等优势,已成为建筑领域能源结构优化的重要技术路径,故深入分析光伏发电系统选型与成本效益的内在联系,以及筛选适配项目需求且成本效益最优的组件显得十分重要。以郑州市光伏项目为例,梳理成本效益各影响因素间的相互作用关系,建立系统动力学模型,对不同功率组件展开为期20年的成本效益仿真分析。研究结果表明,在光伏发电项目中,300 W、400 W、500 W组件的成本效益在初始阶段均呈现负收益。其中,400 W组件在第3年实现盈亏平衡,模拟期累计成本效益达89070.8元,要优于300 W(68414.8元)和500 W(61909.8元)。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of the accelerated global transition towards low-carbon energy, photovoltaic power generation technology, owing to its advantages such as cleanliness, environmental friendliness, and renewability, has emerged as a crucial technical pathway for optimizing the energy structure in the construction sector. Therefore, it is of great significance to conduct an in-depth analysis of the internal relationship between the selection of photovoltaic power generation systems and their cost-benefit, and to screen out the components that are best suited to project requirements and offer the optimal cost-benefit. Taking the photovoltaic project in Zhengzhou as an example, this study sorts out the interaction relationships among various factors influencing the cost-benefit, establishes a system dynamics model, and conducts a 20-year cost-benefit simulation analysis of components with different power ratings. The research shows that in photovoltaic power generation projects, the cost-benefit of 300 W, 400 W, and 500 W components all presents negative returns in the initial stage. Among them, the 400 W components achieve a break-even point in the third year, and the cumulative cost-benefit during the simulation period reaches 89070.8 yuan, which outperforms the cost-benefit performance of 300 W components (68414.8 yuan) and 500 W components (61909.8 yuan).

     

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