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基于CNN-GRU-Attention混合模型的风电功率预测

Wind Power Prediction Based on the CNN-GRU-Attention Hybrid Model

  • 摘要: 准确的风电功率预测有助于电网运营商提前掌握风电场的发电趋势,从而优化电力调度方案,实现电力供需的动态平衡,有效缓解风电波动对电网稳定性带来的影响。为此,提出了一种将注意力机制与深度学习模型相融合的风电预测模型。注意力机制对输入特征向量的贡献进行非均匀加权,从而优化学习目标。卷积神经网络(CNN)有助于提取短期属性以获得高维属性,而门控循环单元(GRU)可以解决原始数据合并导致的预测不准确问题。实验结果表明,单一的LSTM和GRU模型性能相对较差;CNN-LSTM和CNN-GRU模型在准确性和计算效率上取得了较好的平衡,适用于对预测精度有一定要求且希望快速得到结果的场景;CNN-GRU-Attention模型虽然计算时间较长,但能最准确进行预测。如果对计算时间要求不高,追求高精度预测,那么CNN-GRU-Attention是更好的选择。

     

    Abstract: Accurate wind power prediction helps grid operators grasp the power generation trend of wind farms in advance, thereby optimizing the power dispatching plan, achieving a dynamic balance between power supply and demand, and effectively alleviating the impact of wind power fluctuations on the stability of the power grid. To this end, this study proposes a wind power prediction model that integrates the attention mechanism with the deep learning model. The attention mechanism performs non-uniform weighting on the contribution of the input feature vector, thereby optimizing the learning objective. Convolutional neural network (CNN) is helpful for extracting short-term attributes to obtain high-dimensional attributes, while gated recurrent unit (GRU) can solve the problem of inaccurate predictions caused by the merging of original data. The experimental results show that the performance of the single LSTM and GRU models is relatively poor; the CNN-LSTM and CNN-GRU models have achieved a good balance in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, and are suitable for scenarios that have certain requirements for prediction accuracy and hope to obtain results quickly. Although the CNN-GRU-Attention model takes a long time to calculate, it can make predictions most accurately. If the requirement for computing time is not high and high-precision prediction is pursued, CNN-GRU-Attention is a better choice.

     

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